Tuesday 31 December 2013

Market Outlook

It appears that Nifty is evenly poised at 6300 odd levels    It also appears that markets are
showing signs of fatigue on the upside.    Having said that, the upcoming earnings season and
the fresh allocations from the global fund managers for the calendar year 2014 will bear out
the trend of the markets for the January series.

Sunday 15 December 2013

Santa Claus Worries

The strong economic data that has emerged from the US over the last fortnight is making a
strong case for the tapering of the US monetary stimulus program.    The trending yield
differentials of the developed world vis-a-vis the US bonds and the gains that the USD has
made against some major currencies like the British Pound,  Canadian and the Australian
Dollar, etc.seem to suggest that the tapering is just a matter of time.

The moot question is -- when will the scaling down actually commence from ?      and,
                                    what will be its nature ? 

Friday 13 December 2013

Weekly Outlook

The kind of profit booking sessions witnessed in the post state election euphoria on
Monday suggests that the sentiment has turned around.    The week IIP data and the
CPI number further added to the gloom.    The absence of buying even at lower levels
is worrisome.

The coming week has major events in terms of the US Federal meeting and the subsequent
Reserve Bank of India policy meet.    These events will clearly bear out the course of the
markets for the rest of the December series.  

Sunday 1 December 2013

Weekly Outlook

The Q2 GDP data released on Friday was more or less what the market was anticipating.
It appears that the GDP growth numbers are forming a bottom.

For the coming week,  Indian markets will be driven by global cues.    Among other data
points,  markets will be watching Bernanke's speech on Monday,  US Q3 GDP data on
Thursday and US jobless rate data on Friday.   But for the tapering fears emanating from the
US,  Indian markets are likely to remain firm.